Southern Hemisphere grape supply and wine production - forecasts to 2013

Abstract

Five different wine-producing countries - and five different sets of challenges for the years ahead, but all are subject to the same consumer trends, and the same global market in grapes and wine.

The changes to the grape supply and wine production picture in the Southern Hemisphere over the last 18 months have been dramatic, with each of the five main wine-producing countries - Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Argentina and Chile dealing with their own individual issues, although Australia' s drought tends to have dominated the headlines.

In this second edition of the Southern Hemisphere grape supply and wine production report we take a look at the challenges facing the market, and answer questions such as: Are the prices of key grape varieties rising or falling? Where are new plantings taking place? And what role will consumer tastes and preferences play in the next few years?

For each wine producing country included in the report we provide:

• A concise harvest report for 2007, supported by relevant data.
• An assessment of the current grape supply, demand and pricing situation for key grape varieties and regions, supported by forecasts showing average grape price by varietal for each region, from 2002 to 2013.
• Current and future production trends, including commentary on grower/producer relationships and limitations on supply and planting.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 2 Australia

• Introduction
• Harvest report 2007
• Current and future production trends
• Current and future pricing trends
• Conclusion

Chapter 3 New Zealand

• Introduction
• Harvest report 2007
• Current and future production trends
• Current and future pricing trends
• Conclusion

Chapter 4 South Africa

• Introduction
• Harvest 2007 report
• Current and future production trends
• Current and future pricing trends
• Conclusion

Chapter 5 Argentina

• Introduction
• Harvest report 2007
• Current and future production trends
• Current and future pricing trends
• Conclusion

Chapter 6 Chile

• Introduction
• Harvest report 2007
• Current and future production trends
• Current and future pricing trends
• Conclusion

List of tables

• Table 1: Australia grape production by selected varietal, 2002-2007 (‘000 tonnes)
• Table 2: Australia vineyard area by varietal, bearing and non-bearing, 2006 (ha)
• Table 3: Australia wine production, 2002-2013 (m litres and stock-to-sales ratio)
• Table 4: Australia grape pricing by selected varietal, 2002-2007 (A$/tonne)
• Table 5: Projected Australia grape pricing by selected varietal, 2008-2013 (A$/tonne)
• Table 6: New Zealand wine production by region, 2006-2007 (tonnes and % change)
• Table 7: New Zealand wine production by varietal, 2006-2007 (tonnes and % change)
• Table 8: New Zealand producing vineyard holdings by varietal, 2002-2007 (ha)
• Table 9: Projected New Zealand producing vineyard holdings by varietal, 2008-2010 (ha)
• Table 10: New Zealand wine grape production by varietal, 2002-2007 (tonnes)
• Table 11: New Zealand average grape price by major varietal, 2002-2007 (NZ$/tonne)
• Table 12: Projected New Zealand average grape price by major varietal, 2008-2013 (NZ$/tonne)
• Table 13: South Africa grape and wine production by region, 2002-2008 (‘000 tons and m litres)
• Table 14: South Africa vineyard area by varietal, 1997-2006 (ha)
• Table 15: Projected South Africa white wine availability by varietal, 2008-2012 (m litres)
• Table 16: South Africa average grape prices by varietal (excluding co-ops), 2002-2007 (ZAR/ton)
• Table 17: Projected South Africa average grape prices by varietal (excluding co-ops) 2008-2013 (ZAR/ton)
• Table 18: Argentina wine grape production by region, 2000-2006 (‘000 tonnes)
• Table 19: Argentina vineyard surface by region, 2006 (ha and %)
• Table 20: Argentina vineyard surface by varietal, 1990-2006 (ha)
• Table 21: Mendoza province average grape prices by varietal (contract purchases), 2003-2007 (pesos/tonne)
• Table 22: Mendoza province average grape prices by varietal (spot purchases), 2003-2007 (pesos/tonne)
• Table 23: Predicted Mendoza average grape prices by varietal (contract purchases), 2008-2013 (pesos/tonne)
• Table 24: Predicted Mendoza average grape prices by varietal (spot purchases), 2008-2013 (pesos/tonne)
• Table 25: Chile wine production, 2000-2007 (000 hectolitres)
• Table 26: Chile vineyard holdings by grape variety, 2000-2006 (ha and %)